The dynamics of political change in the Middle East have undergone significant transformation in the last few decades. Various internal and external factors contribute to these changes, creating new challenges and opportunities for countries in the region. One important aspect of political change was the Arab Spring which began in 2010. This wave of protests demanded political reform, civil liberties and human rights. Countries such as Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya experienced dramatic regime changes, although the results varied. In Tunisia, the transition to democracy was relatively successful, while in Libya, a power vacuum led to prolonged conflict. In addition, the conflict in Syria which began in 2011 became a milestone that shook regional stability. The war involving many actors, both local and international, exacerbated the humanitarian crisis, resulting in millions of refugees and changing the geopolitical landscape. The involvement of Russia and the United States further complicates the situation, with both supporting different sides in this conflict. Apart from that, sectarian issues between Sunnis and Shiites have also emerged as a significant dynamic. The conflicts in Iraq and Yemen show how these divisions can fuel violence. Countries such as Iran seek to expand their influence in the region by supporting Shiite groups, while Saudi Arabia supports Sunni governments to counter this expansion. The Israeli-Palestinian peace process also remains a source of tension. After failed negotiations, the situation in the Occupied Territories continues to fuel protests and violence. The move of the US embassy to Jerusalem in 2018 sparked a strong reaction from the Muslim world and worsened relations between Israel and Arab countries. The influence of global powers is increasingly striking. China, for example, is increasingly actively involved in the Middle East through the Belt and Road initiative, offering alternative pathways for infrastructure development. Meanwhile, the rise of nationalism and populism, accompanied by economic anxiety, prompted many governments to strengthen internal controls and emphasize national identity. Climate change is also an increasingly relevant factor in the region. Water crises, disrupted agriculture, and natural disasters are further increasing social and political tensions, especially in already vulnerable countries. Social media also plays an important role, accelerating the dissemination of information and mass mobilization. Young activists use digital platforms to organize, spread ideas and achieve change. However, it is also a tool for the government to control the narrative and silence dissent. All of these elements—from internal conflict to geopolitics, from economics to technology—are part of the complex dynamics of political change in the Middle East. In this context, it is important to pay attention to how the foreign policies of major countries can shape the future of this historically rich region.
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